Prospects for Online BNPL in Canada, 2024 - Single User Subscription
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The global market for BNPL services has grown rapidly over the past five years, spurred on in part by the strong growth in e-commerce during the pandemic years. In 2023, Gross Merchandise Value using BNPL services exceeded $300 bn (USD) worldwide, up from $128.6 bn (USD) in 2019.
In 2023, Canada’s online BNPL expenditure represented 4.1% of global online BNPL expenditure, or $12.3 bn (CAD) in GMV. While Canada was late in the adoption of online BNPL services, growth in GMV since 2019 has outpaced that in all of the more developed jurisdictions.
Almost one third of adult Canadians have used online BNPL services for their e-commerce purchases in the past year, indicating that while online BNPL is gaining trraction rapidly in Canada, there is still significant headroom for growth. In 2028, we expect 19.4 m adult Canadians to make use of online BNPL services, with GMV almost quadrupling over the forecast horizon.
Growth in the market is being driven by increasing adoption, higher frequency of use, and higher average order values. This is being stimulated by intense competition, especially between fintech BNPL service providers and traditional credit BNPL providers, with product innovation playing a major role in the battle for both consumers and merchants.
Prospects for Online BNPL in Canada - 2024, provides a deep dive into the Canadian online BNPL market, examining market demographics and segments, key players, industry trends, the supply structure, delivery mechanisms, the competitive environment, regulatory developments, and the implications for both consumers and businesses. The central aim of this report is to provide actionable insights into the current state of the online BNPL market in Canada and the most important factors shaping its future trajectory. Our forecast horizon is the five year period to 2028, with 2023 as the base year.
Drawing on survey research from more than 2,000 Canadian consumers, Prospects for Online BNPL in Canada - 2024 is a critical strategic resource for payment professionals active in the BNPL market, providing in-depth insights and forecasts to facilitate effective strategic planning, competitive positioning and product development in this highly dynamic marketplace.
About the report:
Publication date: June 2024
Number of pages: 70
Charts and tables: 30
List of Companies Mentioned in the Report:
Affirm, Afterpay, Amazon, American Express, Apple, Block, BMO, BRIM Financial , Canadian Tire, Celerant Technology, CIBC, CURO Group Holdings, FCAC, Flexiti, Google, Klarna, MasterCard, MBNA, Miller Thompson LLP, Norton Rose Fullbright, Paybright, PayPal, Questrade, RBC, Scotiabank, Sezzle, Splitit, Stripe, TD Bank, Upgrade, Uplift, Visa, Walmart, Zip
Methodology:
- Online research
- Executive interviews
- Conferences and seminars
- Consumer Research: Findings from our primary market research among 2,000 adult Canadian consumers
- Analysis and insight, based on 30+ years of advising clients in the international payments market
Contents of the Report:
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Overview
Objectives of the Study
BNPL IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT
The Evolution of BNPL
The Global Market for BNPL Services
THE CANADIAN MARKET FOR ONLINE BNPL SERVICES
Online Shopping in Canada
Awareness and Usage of Online BNPL Services
Demand for Online BNPL Services in Canada
Online BNPL Expenditure by Category
BNPL Expenditure by Region in Canada
CHARACTERISTICS OF ONLINE BNPL USERS
Usage of Online BNPL by Generational Segment
Usage of Online BNPL by Household Income Group
User Perceptions of BNPL
Future Usage Intent
Payment Methods for Online BNPL Services
SUPPLY STRUCTURE AND DELIVERY MECHANISMS
Supply Structure by Type of Provider
Delivery Mechanisms
THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
Awareness of Online BNPL Service Offerings
Usage of Online BNPL Service Offerings
Market Share of Major Suppliers
The Dynamics of BNPL Market Competition
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Competition and innovation
Regulation
Consumer adoption
Industry profitability and consolidation
APPENDIX A
Competitor Profiles of Major Fintech BNPL Service Providers Operating in Canada
Affirm
Afterpay
Flexiti
Klarna
Sezzle
Uplift
APPENDIX B
Research Methodology
List of Abbreviations
List of Figures
Figure 1: Value of Global BNPL Expenditure (2019 - 2028)
Figure 2: Forecast Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2015-2028)
Figure 3: Online BNPL Awareness by Generational Segment (2022 and 2023)
Figure 4: Awareness and Usage of Online BNPL Services Among Online Shoppers
Figure 5: Forecast Value and Volume of Online BNPL Expenditure in Canada (2019 - 2028)
Figure 6: Online BNPL Expenditure in Canada by Category (2023)
Figure 7: Incidence of Online Shopping and BNPL Purchases by Category in Canada (2023)
Figure 8: Intensity of BNPL Usage Across BNPL User Shopping Categories
Figure 9: BNPL Expenditure by Region in Canada (2023)
Figure 10: Regional BNPL Indicators
Figure 11: Distribution of Online BNPL Users vs Online Shoppers by Generational Segment
Figure 12: Proportion of Online Shoppers in each Generational Segment that have used BNPL (P12M) (2021-2023)
Figure 13: BNPL Expenditure by Generational Segment
Figure 14: Income Distribution of Online BNPL Users vs Online Shoppers
Figure 15: Reasons for Using Online BNPL
Figure 16: The Disadvantages of Online BNPL
Figure 17: User Behaviour with Online BNPL
Figure 18: Online BNPL Usage Intent Among Online Shoppers by Generational Segment (N12M)
Figure 19: Online BNPL Usage Intent by Online Shoppers Aware of Online BNPL (N12M)
Figure 20: Payment Methods used for Online BNPL Services
Figure 21: BNPL Expenditure by Type of BNPL Service Provider
Figure 22: Online BNPL Delivery Process (Swim Lane Diagram)
Figure 23: Awareness of Online BNPL Service Providers Among Online Shoppers
Figure 24: Brand Awareness of Online BNPL by Generational Segment
Figure 25: Usage of Online BNPL Service Providers (P12M)
Figure 26: Brand Conversion Ratios of Online BNPL Service Providers
Figure 27: Market Share by BNPL Provider (2023)
List of Tables
Table 1: BNPL Instalment Plan Options After Purchase
Table 2: Key Financial Metrics of Affirm, Klarna and Sezzle
Table 3: Components of BNPL Revenue: Affirm, Klarna and Sezzle