Canadian Online BNPL Expenditure Exceeds $12 bn in 2023

– Growth of more than 30% p.a. expected over the next five years –

(June 4, 2024) – Canadian BNPL expenditure on online purchases amounted to $12.3 bn (CAD) in 2023, representing 16.2% of online sales and 1.6% of retail sales, according to the recently released report ‘Prospects for Online BNPL in Canada, 2024’, published by Technology Strategies International Inc. Growth in BNPL GMV for e-commerce purchases in Canada is expected to exceed 30% p.a. (CAGR) over the period 2023 to 2028. By 2028, Canadian online BNPL will account for 4.1% of global online GMV.

“Canada has been late to adopt online BNPL services relative to our US and European counterparts,” says Christie Christelis, President of Technology Strategies International. “However, since 2019 growth has been much higher than in those jurisdictions, spurred on by the e-commerce explosion during the COVID pandemic and financial pressure on households, which made deferred interest-free payments for online purchases an attractive proposition for many consumers.”

More than 70% of all online BNPL users in Canada were from the Gen Z and Millennial generational segments in 2023, according to the report, but adoption in the older segments is increasing suggesting significant headroom for growth across all segments.

“One of the concerns raised about BNPL services is that it is said to target low-income households,” says Christelis. “Our research shows that this is definitely not the case in Canada. Online shoppers from households with incomes of less than $50k are far less likely to use online BNPL services than those in higher income households.”

Competition in the online BNPL space in Canada is intense, with most of the large global fintech BNPL service providers having entered the Canadian market in the past few years. Major credit card issuers in Canada have also started offering online BNPL services and have captured a significant share of the market in a relatively short time span, according to the report. The Canadian Tire Triangle Card BNPL offering has gained the most traction in Canada.

“Credit card issuers were concerned, for good reason, that the fintech BNPL players would erode their revenue base,” says Christelis. “Interestingly, the majority of online BNPL users pay their instalments using a credit card.”

The report examines the financial metrics of three key players in the fintech BNPL space and highlights some of the challenges facing the industry in terms of profitability, credit losses and funding costs. It goes on to predict that BNPL product innovation will play an important role in shaping the future of online BNPL in Canada and, while Canadian regulatory authorities have adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach, a strong regulatory response could have a dampening impact on the market.

Additional highlights from the study are:

Millennials account for the largest share of online BNPL expenditure in Canada
Electronics dominates online BNPL expenditure by category, while Clothing, Footwear and Accessories has the highest proportion of BNPL users making purchase in that category
Four online BNPL service providers in Canada have a GMV of more than $1 bn

The 70-page ‘Prospects for Online BNPL in Canada, 2024’ report provides a deep dive into the Canadian online BNPL market, examining key players, market segments and trends, the supply structure, delivery mechanisms, the competitive environment, regulatory developments, and the implications for both consumers and businesses. The central aim of this report is to provide actionable insights into the current state of the online BNPL market in Canada and the most important factors shaping its future trajectory.

Drawing on survey research from more than 2,000 Canadian consumers, the report is a critical strategic resource for payment professionals active in the BNPL market, providing in-depth insights and forecasts to facilitate effective strategic planning, competitive positioning and product development in this highly dynamic marketplace.